An Uncertain Future

On the eve of the next major demonstration that has regained life. This thing is far from over. It is also far from certain as to the outcome. Will the government grow weary and obstinate and use force? Already hundreds of protesters have been taken away with fates unknown. Will there be a power vacuum filled by the Muslim Brotherhood? What might be their eventual agenda? Will there be democracy? This last one is the favored option, but democracy is a learned skill. It won’t just magically happen among a people who have never really experienced it. It won’t come easy when the education system has emphasized rote learning and not thinking outside the box. This could all begin in a day or a month or a year ... or never.

Comparisons are inevitable to Iran 1979. The history is similar: a corrupt and repressive regime for three decades, fake elections, strong internal security, a government and military supported up by lots of US dollars, the need to by cultivating an ally and protect Western strategic interests in a volatile region, opulent wealth and grinding poverty living in the same capital city, ongoing street protests, conflicting US responses to the crisis, and the presence of Muslim clerics. But the sociology is different: commercial interests heavily dependent on international tourism and not tied into the clerics, communication spread to the whole world through the Internet and social media, white-collar and labor activists are at the center of the protest instead of religious leaders, political parties with secular rather than religious ties, and a brand of Islam that does not demand unquestioning obedience to their clergy (Sunni vs. Shiite). Also, the Muslim Brotherhood has thin minority support. This makes a coup by them less likely than Iran.

No one knows what will happen, and anything could happen. Most of us are emotionally exhausted. We don’t know what to expect and when to expect any real definition of the future. Life has been turned upside down and many of our friends have left, and I suspect some of them may never return. So you grieve their loss and feel lonely. Yet there is a strong sense of community springing up. We have prayed every noon for the past two weeks with crowds ranging from 30-60! They have been powerful times of connecting with God and releasing His power in this country. Some members of the church have even begun food distribution on the streets to those who may be struggling to get food with the economy shut down for two weeks.

Karan and Alex are back in full days of school, so it appears that Alex will get to stay in Egypt. We take each day as it comes on this new chapter of our faith journey. There are reports of a few large corporation men trickling back in. Let’s hope that trend continues.